Friday
Real Option Valuation a
The new standard for valuing, selecting, and managing strategic investments
day 1 SEMINAR AGENDA
Registration and Continental Breakfast 8:00am ' 8:30am
Welcome Address from Tim Luehrman 8:30am ' 9:30am
Real Option Valuation (ROV TM ) Overview 9:30am ' 10:30am
- What are real options and why are they important
- The analytical foundations of ROV
- The ROV process
- Examples of ROV in practice
Structuring and Valuing Real Options with Decision Analysis 10:30am ' 12:00pm
- Decision analysis fundamentals
- Modeling and valuing real options using decision trees
- Representing uncertainty and learning using influence diagrams
Lunch 12:00pm ' 1:00pm
Structuring and Valuing Real Options with Decision 1:00pm ' 2:00pm
Analysis (continued)
- Quantifying judgmental uncertainty using probabilities
- Decision analysis excercise
Structuring and Valuing Real Options with Option Pricing 2:00pm ' 4:30pm
- Option pricing fundamentals
- Using capital market data to value options
- Alternative price behavior models
- Lattices and the Black-Scholes formula
- Option pricing exercise
Introduction to ROV 4:30pm ' 5:30pm
- Strengths and weaknesses of decision analysis and option pricing
- An integrated analytical approach
- The ROV process
day 2 SEMINAR AGENDA
Continental Breakfast 8:00am ' 8:30am
OpenFraming TM 8:30am ' 11:00am
- Identifying risks and opportunities
- Uncovering investment flexibility
- Exploiting uncertainty through options
- Structuring investment decisions using a Dream Tree TM
- ROV case study
Analysis 11:00am ' 12:00pm
- The importance of learning models in valuing investments
- Developing dynamic models of risk and oportunity
- Distinguishing market (investor) and corporate (manager) risks
Lunch 12:00pm ' 1:00pm
Analysis (continued) 1:00pm ' 3:00pm
- Using capital market data to assess and value market risks
- Using expert judgment to assess and value corporate risks
- ROV case study
Interpretation 3:00pm ' 4:00pm
- Estimating and interpreting value
- Using risk profiles to quantify and display risk and return
- Developing a management action plan using a DynamicRoadmap TM
- Communicating results and insights clearly and effectively
- ROV case study
Summary and Conclusion 4:30pm ' 5:30pm
- Seminar review
- Information sources
- ROV adoption